Inside The Numbers Of Victor Wembanyama’s Historic Second Season

The San Antonio Spurs announced Thursday that franchise cornerstone Victor Wembanyama is expected to miss the remainder of the regular season with a deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in his right shoulder.

Not only is this a massive short-term blow to the Spurs, who were looking to make a playoff push, but it’s a loss for the NBA fans around the globe that became tantalized by his unique skills and talent.

The league itself will also miss the international attention he garners on a nightly basis, providing life and intrigue for a team currently on the outside looking in.

Plus, he was taking the NBA by storm. It’s not a stretch to say Wembanyama had the most impressive rookie and sophomore seasons the league has seen, especially when you account for his professionalism and how seriously he takes his craft at such a young age (more on his impressive campaign later).

While it’s unfortunate we won’t see the 7-foot-5 phenom on the floor until October, what matters most is Wembanyama’s health and well-being moving forward. Fortunately, there seems to be no concern on that front, or for his career to be in jeopardy.

Shortly after San Antonio’s press release dropped, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported the Spurs organization believes this will be an isolated occurrence and he’ll make a full recovery.

It’s a relief San Antonio’s medical staff caught the issue early, particularly with how rare and challenging of a diagnosis DVTs are. Blood clots can certainly be life threatening if they embolize and move toward the lungs or heart. So it’s great that Wembanyama’s situation appears to be contained shortly after he reported pain in his shoulder.

Looking forward, although this robs him of two months of basketball and potentially the play-in tournament, there is a positive outlook on his future.

We’ve seen another high-profile star experience this same type of blood clot and return the following season with no concerns. Brandon Ingram was sidelined on March 9, 2019 after team doctors found a deep venous thrombosis in his arm. He was a member of the Los Angeles Lakers at the time, eventually traded to New Orleans in the offseason deal for Anthony Davis.

Ingram had to miss the final 19 games of the regular season, but the Pelicans weren’t scared away by the issue. They still executed the trade. Ingram was back in uniform during training camp and started the season on time. Six years later, the health concern hasn’t reappeared. In fact, Ingram just recently signed a three-year extension with his new team, the Toronto Raptors, that will pay him $40 million annually.

Injury analyst Jeff Stotts, who actually wrote about Ingram’s absence in 2019, said it’s likely an athlete who suffers a blood clot will get tested to determine whether it was the result of an undiagnosed genetic disorder. If those tests come back negative and it’s simply from an isolated issue, Wembanyama should be fine long-term. Ingram, for instance, hasn’t had any repeat blood clots since 2019.

Since Wembanyama will be placed on anticoagulant medication, also known as blood thinners, he won’t be able to participate in any contact sports. Athletes usually take blood thinners for at least six months during these situations, and the NBA doesn’t allow players to be active during that process. Therefore, the earliest we can see him on the floor again would be Spurs training camp in the Fall.

How dominant was Wemby in his second year?

Wembanyama, in his second NBA season, was staking his claim for Defensive Player of the Year with a dominant campaign on that end of the floor. In fact, the voting might have been unanimous. He was that far ahead of the pack.

Now, he will be ineligible for all end-of-season awards because of the league’s 65-game rule implemented in 2023. Wembanyama will finish 19 games shy of the minimum, forfeiting his spot on the All-NBA First or Second team, which he was practically guaranteed to have despite the Spurs’ average performance.

There’s a larger issue that needs to be discussed about the 65-game rule. Voters should have the right to weigh a player’s dominant 46 games against the rest of the field if they choose. But we’re not here to relitigate those matters today.

In those 46 games played, Wembanyama’s statistical production was off the charts, averaging 24.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 3.8 blocks on 59.4% true shooting. The sophomore sensation increased his 3-point frequency while also becoming more efficient, a combination usually reserved for veteran players entering their prime.

He became one of seven players in history to average at least 24-11-3 in 40 or more games, joining Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (5x), Hakeem Olajuwon (4x), David Robinson (3x), Patrick Ewing (2x), Shaquille O’Neal, and Bob McAdoo.

But most importantly, he’s the youngest on the list:

NOTE: The NBA didn’t record blocks until the 1973-74 season, so we don’t know how many times Wilt Chamberlain would have appeared here.

Among the players above that accomplished those seasons before Wemby, the average age was 27.4 years old. If he can have a career with moderate health, you will see his name duplicated as many times as Kareem.

As a shot blocker, Wembanyama is already showcasing his brilliance and putting together an undeniable résumé.

Block percentage is a modern way to gauge a player’s rejection rate. It’s simply the percentage of opponents’ field goal attempts blocked by a player while they’re on the floor.

There have only been nine seasons in NBA history featuring a player with a 10% block percentage or higher – and Wembanyama has two of them at 21 years old. He joins Manute Bol as the only player with multiple seasons hitting that mark (min. 40 games played).

Aside from the blocks, which get the most attention on highlight reels and statistical comparisons, Wembanyama’s rim protection was a nightmare for opponents. He contested 8.1 shots near the rim per game, holding players to 50.0% shooting on those attempts. If you remove Wembanyama’s numbers, the NBA average conversion rate among all players with at least 200 rim contests is 61.3%. That puts him 11 percentage points better than league average as a rim protector.

His presence alone frightened most guards and wings, often deterring their drives and making it known: The paint belonged to him.

For the Spurs, the distribution of opponents’ shot attempts in the restricted area dropped by five percentage points with Wembanyama on the floor. Scorers would rather find a different avenue, or settle for jumpers (which he can sometimes block, too, because of the freakish wingspan). For context on how impressive that is for a sophomore to garner such respect, Rudy Gobert consistently has a rim deterrent rate between five and eight percent. But that’s as a veteran center – someone who has spent a decade studying other players’ tendencies and the nuances of drop coverage defense.

Rarely do you see a second-year player change the complexion of a team just by walking on the floor. But that’s precisely what Wembanyama has done for San Antonio. Still honing his raw talent and learning the NBA’s style, Wemby already ranks in the 95th percentile of on-off differential. The Spurs were 12.6 points better per 100 possessions with him on the court versus off – a number that Cleaning The Glass estimates would boost a team by 28 wins over the course of 82 games. It’s more than double his impact last year as a rookie.

Across his 3,141 total possessions this season, the Spurs had a 112.4 defensive rating (69th percentile) and among the lowest foul rates in the league. In the 1,866 possessions he’s been on the bench, however, their defensive rating swelled to 121.4 (7th percentile).

It’s more crucial for the Spurs that his defensive chops are elite at this age. His learning curve with schemes and coverages was virtually non-existent coming over from France. You just never see that, especially for big men who bear a ton of responsibility on a given possession.

Everything offensively, at this point, is gravy.

San Antonio’s player development staff never expected him to be approaching the top 10 in per-minute scoring this early. They elected to take it slow and play the long game.

But as Wembanyama said last season, although he’s not skipping steps in his development, that never stopped him from running up the stairs. That’s exactly what he’s doing with his offensive skill-set, too.

From his rookie to sophomore year, Wembanyama improved his efficiency in the core four areas on the floor:

• At the Rim: 69.9% to 75.4%
• Floater Range: 39.8% to 50.5%
• Mid-Range Jumpers: 33.7% to 40.1%
• Above-the-Break Threes: 31.3% to 35.9%
• Corner Threes: 54.5% to 33.3% (27 attempts)

The only dip has come from his corner 3-pointer, but those attempts are only 3% of his overall shot diet.

It only took one offseason for him to get noticeably stronger and own the paint. He went from a respectable finisher inside to one of the league’s best. Out of all 108 players to attempt at least 200 shots within eight feet of the basket, Wembanyama ranks 10th in conversion rate. That’s a massive improvement from 51st last season.

When he returns in a few months for his third year, the Spurs will be expected to take another leap. Given what we know about Wemby’s personality and motor, those expectations won’t be news to him. They will be assumed and welcomed.

His career trajectory is rivaling that of LeBron James 21 years ago, when everyone could sense he would become the best player on Earth in short order. If this season was a preview of what’s ahead, there will be multiple MVP and Defensive Player of the Year awards in Wembanyama’s future.