(Photo by Mandel NGAN / AFP) (Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images)
To the old adage “nothing in the world is certain, but death and taxes” I would add: Nothing in the world is certain but, death and taxes and a new round of polls about taxes around tax time. Have we learned anything new this year? What do the new polls tell us about extending the 2017 tax cuts?
Fox News recently updated several questions on taxes. When registered voters were asked what bothers them most about federal income taxes, the top response at 45% was rich people not paying enough. That’s a familiar response, but the share is up 17 points since 2014. In a new poll from early March, YouGov came at this sentiment from a different angle: 48% said the wealthy paid less in taxes now than they did 10 years ago, 19% about the same, and 16% more. Only 11% said they themselves were paying less, and 52% said they were paying more.
In another question, 65%, including 42% of Republicans, said the rich pay too little in taxes. A Pew Research Center poll from earlier in the year found that around six in ten wanted to increase taxes on large corporations and households with incomes over $400,000. In response to these questions, 43% of Republicans favored raising taxes on both groups. As I’ve said before, Americans don’t particularly resent the rich, but they are very willing to tax them.
Second, despite the intense lobbying on Capitol Hill on tax matters, taxes aren’t a high priority for the public right now. In Gallup’s open-ended question, 2% in March volunteered taxes as the country’s most important problem. One percent did so in January and February. Another indication of the lack of intensity: just 12% in the new Fox poll said what they paid bothered them most about the tax system.
Third, most Americans aren’t paying attention to the debate on the Republican tax plan. Only 16% in the YouGov poll said they were following very closely, while 32% said somewhat closely. One might expect those with high incomes to be paying closer attention, but only 20% of those with incomes of $100,000 or more were following it very closely. Thirty-five percent in the poll had no opinion about the Republican tax plan. Forty percent in another question were “not sure” about extending the 2017 tax cut legislation. A third said they were not sure whether they would pay more under it (28% said they would, 23% about the same, and 17% less). “Not sure” or “don’t know” responses this large tell me there is no meaningful general public opinion on the debate, despite what some pollsters claim.
There are several reasons why this year’s tax debate (or the one in 2017 for that matter) is not capturing the public’s attention. The economy, inflation, and tariffs are significantly greater concerns right now. Additionally, many Americans have given up on politicians’ tax promises, and for them the whole debate is a kind of sideshow. Yes, majorities continue to say they pay too much in taxes (59% in the Fox poll, roughly constant for 20 years), but they don’t believe much will change for them. The new CBS poll that shows 62% in favor of extending the 2017 cuts reflects a common-sense desire to hold the line as people think their taxes are always going to go up.
Finally, taxes and the tax code are just so complicated that most of us don’t follow the details. We are simply not very knowledgeable about taxes, as a 2024 tax literacy study by The Tax Foundation shows. The organization asked knowledge questions about taxes including what the average federal tax rate was, how much tax one would pay in the 22% bracket, and how much the top 1% accounts for in terms of share of federal income taxes paid. The organization concluded tax literacy is low no matter people’s education level. A late 2024 Ipsos/Reuters poll that included tax knowledge questions showed a majority of Americans do not have a solid understanding of terms such as a capital gains tax.
The value of most polling questions about taxes is in their expression of underlying sentiments about wealth, fairness, tax burdens and how those sentiments change over time. It is important to understand them, but they tell us little about the debate on Capitol Hill.
